Posted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 10:48 am
Okay, time for some of my setlist predictions. You've all heard of professional oddsmaker Jimmy the Greek, so now I'll be Greggy the Geek.
Since I haven't heard 75% of the new album yet, it would be unfair for me to try to guess which songs should go where in the setlist, so I'm just going to stick with the setlist for "The Poodle Hat Tour" and guess how likely something will stay or go....
Angry White Boy Polka - Obviously this will go in favor of "Polkarama!": 0% chance of returning
Party At The Leper Colony - Traditionally originals from the previous new album rarely get to return in the next setlist, so a lot may depend on how many SOL originals can be translated into a live performance. Still, the "low-techness" of this number (the lack of a specific costume or video program) might give it the edge over, say, WBUL or even "Trash Day": 40%
Your Horoscope For Today - Whether it has been a conscious decision or not, it seems lately that every new tour features an original from the previous album that had not been performed live before. "The Night Santa Went Crazy" turned up for TWS, while "Horoscope" here debuted in "The Poodle Hat Tour." So, this might get bumped in favor of another more-recent "classic original," but for the life of me I can't think of one from PH that wouldn't pose the same logistical problems performing live as from three years ago: 40%
A Complicated Song - It probably goes without saying that PH was such an odd album as far as how it was being marketed. What was supposed to be the second "hit" off the album, this or "Trash Day?" I would say this will probably get bumped into the medley, since any one verse would be similar to a self-contained concert-only song there: 50%
Melanie - A solid Al original, and again it's another low-tech number, but frankly after the last tour and the BHD tour it's time to give this song a rest for a while. There are still so many great originals from the late '80s era that need to be rediscovered and added to a tour for the first time: 20%
One More Minute - Of course it's doubtful that this number is going anywhere anytime soon, as it's always been a crowd favorite and a favorite of Al's, but after twenty-one years it might start to be fair game for another love song to take its place. I personally certainly hope not, but hope didn't make "Like a Surgeon" or YDLMA stay put, either: 80%
Dog Eat Dog - Speaking of recent tour trends, it seems that there's now a spot for a classic original to get a costumed number. For TWS it was DTBS and last time it was "Dog Eat Dog." A favorite among fans, of course, but I can't recall it being too well received from the rest of the audiences I was in. Maybe it was just a little too obscure of an original to bring back? I don't know, I still loved it, but I wouldn't mind seeing it absent in favor of another classic original ("UHF" maybe, finally??): 10%
It's All About The Pentiums - Here we have the first half of the ultimate question: "Pentiums" or "Trash Day?" IMO, this is easily the better of the two numbers, both in song quality and performance. But with "White & Nerdy" and possibly even "You're Pitiful" showing up in the setlist, having IAATP on as a full-length number might make the show a little too geek-friendly. As much as I would love to see it stay, its best chance for survival will be in the medley: 50%
Wanna B Ur Lovr - Another crowd-pleasing new original, but then again so was "Germs." It seems the odds-on favorite to replace this one will be "Close But No Cigar." I haven't heard the song yet myself, but it seems that an SOL original will most likely show up in this spot: 10%
Trash Day - I have never been a fan of this song, but I'll try to put that aside for the moment. Unfortunately, the live number didn't really seem to do too much for the pace of the show, as this song was to serve as the segue between the lower-tech first half and the full-blown costumed second half ushered in by the mind-blowing parody medley. Whether or not this stays put will depend on if there is a highly charged, or at least up-tempo, non-"Nerdy" parody on SOL (the only one I can think of might be "Canadian Idiot," but that seems like it would be a better fit earlier in the setlist). This could very well stay where it is, or it could get moved into the medley. Regardless, it's still a fairly recent song, which will probably give it the advantage over, say, "Pentiums": 60%
Medley - Okay, I'll make this brief. Will probably most likely stay: "Money For Nothing/Beverly Hillbillies," "Jurassic Park," "eBay," "Pretty Fly For A Rabbi," "Gump," and "Eat It." 50/50 chance of staying: "Jerry Springer," "Free Delivery," and "My Bologna" (this might get switched out for "Bus," though). Probably most definitely gone: "Theme From Rocky XIII," "Ode To A Superhero," and "Lasagna." I couldn't begin to guess which older parodies might be added, but as I said before, both ACS and "Pentiums" have better-than-average chances of being included.
Smells Like Nirvana - Okay, here's where it gets a little sticky. We're now in the territory of some of Al's biggest hits ever. Is it possible to even pick and choose? Unfortunately the reality is that with each new album that comes out, the setlist is going to have to become more leaner and leaner when it comes to older material. I personally don't think SLN is in any trouble just yet, but I also think this might be the last tour in which the song is guaranteed a spot as a full-length number: 75%
Amish Paradise - Faring just a shade better is "Amish Paradise," but again it seems as if the wagons are beginning to circle around it. Despite the enormous success Al has had with it, would a Coolio parody be a little passe in, say, 2009? Both SLN and "Amish" are so well-received when done live and provide such great performances from the whole band, but these two numbers probably won't stay forever: 80%
Couch Potato - Actually I think if any one song from this second half of the show is already an endangered species it's this one. As well done of a song as it, it simply never became as big of a hit as it should have...plus Al now has another, newer rapid-fire rap parody to have to be able to master. The only thing saving it from being dropped this time out would be the fact that it's still fresh in people's minds (and the Eminem interview before it is a great crowd-pleaser). I'm predicting one more year for this one on its own: 70%
Fat - As far as we know, Album 13 or 14 may very well have something that will replace this number, but for the sheer spectacle of the "rock n' comedy multimedia extravaganza" that is a live Al concert, there is perhaps no better finale: 100%
The Saga Begins - There's always a chance that this could get bumped out of the encore in favor of a new song (a few have suggested DDTS due to its infectious sing-along style), but I would say its place alongside "Yoda" is pretty firm for now: 90%
Yoda - Great song, great reputation, great audience reception always, great live arrangement, great chant, great coda, great ending...not going anywhere: 100%
The only thing I can say right now about the new songs is that I agree with everyone who has said that "You're Pitiful" should be featured somewhere in the setlist, and it would make for a great opener with the false start. And of course Al can follow that up with, "And now for a song I'm allowed to release."
Since I haven't heard 75% of the new album yet, it would be unfair for me to try to guess which songs should go where in the setlist, so I'm just going to stick with the setlist for "The Poodle Hat Tour" and guess how likely something will stay or go....
Angry White Boy Polka - Obviously this will go in favor of "Polkarama!": 0% chance of returning
Party At The Leper Colony - Traditionally originals from the previous new album rarely get to return in the next setlist, so a lot may depend on how many SOL originals can be translated into a live performance. Still, the "low-techness" of this number (the lack of a specific costume or video program) might give it the edge over, say, WBUL or even "Trash Day": 40%
Your Horoscope For Today - Whether it has been a conscious decision or not, it seems lately that every new tour features an original from the previous album that had not been performed live before. "The Night Santa Went Crazy" turned up for TWS, while "Horoscope" here debuted in "The Poodle Hat Tour." So, this might get bumped in favor of another more-recent "classic original," but for the life of me I can't think of one from PH that wouldn't pose the same logistical problems performing live as from three years ago: 40%
A Complicated Song - It probably goes without saying that PH was such an odd album as far as how it was being marketed. What was supposed to be the second "hit" off the album, this or "Trash Day?" I would say this will probably get bumped into the medley, since any one verse would be similar to a self-contained concert-only song there: 50%
Melanie - A solid Al original, and again it's another low-tech number, but frankly after the last tour and the BHD tour it's time to give this song a rest for a while. There are still so many great originals from the late '80s era that need to be rediscovered and added to a tour for the first time: 20%
One More Minute - Of course it's doubtful that this number is going anywhere anytime soon, as it's always been a crowd favorite and a favorite of Al's, but after twenty-one years it might start to be fair game for another love song to take its place. I personally certainly hope not, but hope didn't make "Like a Surgeon" or YDLMA stay put, either: 80%
Dog Eat Dog - Speaking of recent tour trends, it seems that there's now a spot for a classic original to get a costumed number. For TWS it was DTBS and last time it was "Dog Eat Dog." A favorite among fans, of course, but I can't recall it being too well received from the rest of the audiences I was in. Maybe it was just a little too obscure of an original to bring back? I don't know, I still loved it, but I wouldn't mind seeing it absent in favor of another classic original ("UHF" maybe, finally??): 10%
It's All About The Pentiums - Here we have the first half of the ultimate question: "Pentiums" or "Trash Day?" IMO, this is easily the better of the two numbers, both in song quality and performance. But with "White & Nerdy" and possibly even "You're Pitiful" showing up in the setlist, having IAATP on as a full-length number might make the show a little too geek-friendly. As much as I would love to see it stay, its best chance for survival will be in the medley: 50%
Wanna B Ur Lovr - Another crowd-pleasing new original, but then again so was "Germs." It seems the odds-on favorite to replace this one will be "Close But No Cigar." I haven't heard the song yet myself, but it seems that an SOL original will most likely show up in this spot: 10%
Trash Day - I have never been a fan of this song, but I'll try to put that aside for the moment. Unfortunately, the live number didn't really seem to do too much for the pace of the show, as this song was to serve as the segue between the lower-tech first half and the full-blown costumed second half ushered in by the mind-blowing parody medley. Whether or not this stays put will depend on if there is a highly charged, or at least up-tempo, non-"Nerdy" parody on SOL (the only one I can think of might be "Canadian Idiot," but that seems like it would be a better fit earlier in the setlist). This could very well stay where it is, or it could get moved into the medley. Regardless, it's still a fairly recent song, which will probably give it the advantage over, say, "Pentiums": 60%
Medley - Okay, I'll make this brief. Will probably most likely stay: "Money For Nothing/Beverly Hillbillies," "Jurassic Park," "eBay," "Pretty Fly For A Rabbi," "Gump," and "Eat It." 50/50 chance of staying: "Jerry Springer," "Free Delivery," and "My Bologna" (this might get switched out for "Bus," though). Probably most definitely gone: "Theme From Rocky XIII," "Ode To A Superhero," and "Lasagna." I couldn't begin to guess which older parodies might be added, but as I said before, both ACS and "Pentiums" have better-than-average chances of being included.
Smells Like Nirvana - Okay, here's where it gets a little sticky. We're now in the territory of some of Al's biggest hits ever. Is it possible to even pick and choose? Unfortunately the reality is that with each new album that comes out, the setlist is going to have to become more leaner and leaner when it comes to older material. I personally don't think SLN is in any trouble just yet, but I also think this might be the last tour in which the song is guaranteed a spot as a full-length number: 75%
Amish Paradise - Faring just a shade better is "Amish Paradise," but again it seems as if the wagons are beginning to circle around it. Despite the enormous success Al has had with it, would a Coolio parody be a little passe in, say, 2009? Both SLN and "Amish" are so well-received when done live and provide such great performances from the whole band, but these two numbers probably won't stay forever: 80%
Couch Potato - Actually I think if any one song from this second half of the show is already an endangered species it's this one. As well done of a song as it, it simply never became as big of a hit as it should have...plus Al now has another, newer rapid-fire rap parody to have to be able to master. The only thing saving it from being dropped this time out would be the fact that it's still fresh in people's minds (and the Eminem interview before it is a great crowd-pleaser). I'm predicting one more year for this one on its own: 70%
Fat - As far as we know, Album 13 or 14 may very well have something that will replace this number, but for the sheer spectacle of the "rock n' comedy multimedia extravaganza" that is a live Al concert, there is perhaps no better finale: 100%
The Saga Begins - There's always a chance that this could get bumped out of the encore in favor of a new song (a few have suggested DDTS due to its infectious sing-along style), but I would say its place alongside "Yoda" is pretty firm for now: 90%
Yoda - Great song, great reputation, great audience reception always, great live arrangement, great chant, great coda, great ending...not going anywhere: 100%
The only thing I can say right now about the new songs is that I agree with everyone who has said that "You're Pitiful" should be featured somewhere in the setlist, and it would make for a great opener with the false start. And of course Al can follow that up with, "And now for a song I'm allowed to release."
