Predicting the Tour Rotation

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TMBJon
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Re: Predicting the Tour Rotation

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What podcast is this?
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ergalthema
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Re: Predicting the Tour Rotation

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TMBJon wrote:What podcast is this?
http://cringepodcast.com/ep-32-jim-kimo ... tz-returns" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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richegreen
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Re: Predicting the Tour Rotation

Post by richegreen »

2109 would be the first traditional "THE SHOW" tour where Al doesn't have a new album to promote. I have a prediction that he might do something similar to this tour, where he pulls out a lot of back catalog that hasn't been played in decades or at all, but this time with the focus on parodies.
8/23/94 5/28/96 8/3/99 2/3/00 5/11/00 5/12/00 7/7/00 10/29/00x2 11/2/00 11/3/00 11/4/00 7/25/02 7/10/03 7/18/03 9/20/07 9/3/10 5/14/15 3/1/18 3/22/18 3/23/18 7/20/19 4/26/22 5/10/22 5/13/22 10/29/22
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Re: Predicting the Tour Rotation

Post by minnick27 »

No guarantee that Sony doesn't back that dump truck full of money up to his house before then

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Re: Predicting the Tour Rotation

Post by Muppetboy09 »

richegreen wrote:2109 would be the first traditional "THE SHOW" tour where Al doesn't have a new album to promote.
I mean, I know Al's career usually outlasts those who he parodies, but don't you think 2109 is stretching it just a bit? :P
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richegreen
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Re: Predicting the Tour Rotation

Post by richegreen »

Umm sure, the 2109 Head In a Jar tour :P
8/23/94 5/28/96 8/3/99 2/3/00 5/11/00 5/12/00 7/7/00 10/29/00x2 11/2/00 11/3/00 11/4/00 7/25/02 7/10/03 7/18/03 9/20/07 9/3/10 5/14/15 3/1/18 3/22/18 3/23/18 7/20/19 4/26/22 5/10/22 5/13/22 10/29/22
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Re: Predicting the Tour Rotation

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Well, Al only has to live until his mid-80s to reach the technological singularity. Considering his diet, there's a good chance we will get to see Al performing in 2109. Maybe by then, they'll figure out how to play Hardware Store! :#
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RunningWithScissors
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Re: Predicting the Tour Rotation

Post by RunningWithScissors »

So as far as picking the tour rotation, I decided to try something...

I'm going to the show tonight, (3/25) and...

I opened up the spread sheet, and took a look at the patterns of what songs he sang which night.

I made a prediction based on that, of what I think he might play tonight (3/25)

I really should know that Al is really mixing things up, and it will probably be nowhere near what I think, just because, but we'll see.

There are several sections, and while all together they all add up to way more than he would do tonight, The "Likely" and "toss up" sections are the main ones I'm counting on. (And all together that's only 13)

There are a few of these I really hope I'm wrong on, but a lot are great, overall if the Likely and Toss ups were right, plus any 2-3 from the possible section, It would be an amazing show!

So here's my prediction for tonight:
Spoiler:
Likely
Why Does This Always Happen To Me?
Jackson Park Express
You Don't Love Me Anymore
Party At The Leper Colony
One More Minute
The Biggest Ball Of Twine In Minnesota
My Baby's In Love With Eddie Vedder

Toss Up (Songs that are played a lot, feels like they have a semi pattern, or haven't been played in a LOT of shows, so it feels like they are due again)
CNR
Stop Forwarding That Crap To Me
Melanie
The Night Santa Went Crazy
Good Enough For Now
If That Isn't Love

Possible (And I hope...)
Mr Frump And His Iorn Lung
Traffic Jam
Close But No Cigar
Midnight Star
Truck Drivin Song
UHF
Dog Eat Dog
I Was Only Kidding

Sad that it doesn't seem likely (And will squee if I'm wrong...)
Buy Me A Condo
Happy Birthday
Albuquerque
Young Dumb And Ugly
I Remember Larry

Songs I'd like to see that the Data isn't conclusive enough to comment IMO:
Don't Download This Song
Your Horoscope For Today
My Own Eyes
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ergalthema
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Re: Predicting the Tour Rotation

Post by ergalthema »

Curious how that turns out!

I've been asking around to see if there is some kind of spreadsheet formula to predict the possibility a song will be played at the next show, taking into account whether it was played in the most recent show, etc.

Somebody used Solver to make a fairly accurate prediction, but I have no idea how to do that or if there is a way to incorporate it into my sheet. 41 out of 57 ain't bad!
After some basic guessing, I was able to correctly predict 41/57 songs from the most recent location using the previous 2 locations as predictor variables, using Solver. Each song was assumed to be independent, and I didn't use the last location in calculating coefficients.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sheet 1 just changed your Xs to 1s. I left the rows of 0 in there too. Column A is your column E (first location), and similarly for the rest in that sheet. I just copy-pasted your data then replaced x with 1.

So the assumption I'm making is that none of the previous concerts matter in predicting the next concert except for the previous 2. I then ask: given data about the previous 2 concerts, what are the coefficients I can multiply the 1s and 0s by to best predict the next concert to be a 1 or a 0?

Sheet 3 is the analysis: columns A and B are coefficients. For example, the second row says that 0.157 * (2 concerts ago) + 0.490 * (1 concert ago) is the best** prediction for the next concert. The **best coefficients for each row are found by using all of the row's data (excluding the last date, for reason's I'll explain in a second), then squaring the difference between the predicted value and the actual value. These values are stored in columns E thru U. I then sum all those values in the row in column AA, then try to minimize it using Solver.

After I get my coefficients from solver in columns A and B, I use them and the actual data from concerts 18 and 19 to predict concert 20, shown in column V. I then round that to 0 or 1 in column W, and finally show the actual value of concert 20 in column X. Column Y shows whether or not the prediction was correct.

The reason you don't use the last data point in the Solver to determine coefficients is known as in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting, so that the out-of-sample data can be correctly used to determine how good your model extrapolates data, which is ultimately what we're trying to do for the next concert in the future.
Edit: Well, they just said this...
Wait ignore the results, I have to fix something. It could just be a bunch of luck haha
Ok so I made a slight adjustment: before I assumed he would play if the predicted percent was >=50%. Unfortunately that made it predict he would only play 5 songs, but it was still correct 37/53 times. I changed it to predict he will play the top 19 percentages, since he seems to play 18-20 songs each time. After doing so, the number of correct guesses was 34/53, and the number of correct songs guessed was 9/18, which I think is a pretty good guess seeing as he could've played any of the 53 songs.

Using similar calculations, the most likely list of songs predicted to play next is, in no particular order:

CNR
Jackson Park Express
Good Old Days
You Don't Love Me Anymore
Don't Download This Song
When I Was Your Age
Your Horoscope For Today
Dare To Be Stupid (Unplugged)
Albuquerque
Nature Trail To Hell
Close But No Cigar
UHF
Young Dumb and Ugly
Dog Eat Dog
Christmas At Ground Zero
The Saga Begins
Unplugged Medley
drum solo(s)
bass solo(s)
but then...
Ok so I did a statistical test: the probability of randomly guessing 19 songs and matching at least 9 of his songs is about 11%. This means that if we were to repeat this procedure many times with different data sets, we would do no better than random guessing 11% of the time. This sounds good, but usually we want that number to be 5% or less for it to be called 'statistically significant'. What this means is that you shouldn't put any money on these results :)
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